The New Keynesian Gateway (gg poulloin 04.03.26)

 White Paper: The New Keynesian Gateway (NKG)

Beyond Managed Decline

A New Framework for Industralisation and Economic Revitalization

Building ships in Sunderland and aircraft in Kingston, Hatfield, and Brough again.

A promise of renewed industrial capability

The NKG is not merely a fiscal policy, it is a commitment to the restoration of British productive power. The central objective is to reverse the strategic retreat of the UK industrial base.

We reject the notion that these industries are historical. We assert that:

Sunderland can return to its rightful place as a global hub for maritime engineering.

Kingston, Hatfield, and Brough can lead a new era of aerospace innovation, bridging the gap between historical excellence and future green aviation.

Swindon can design and build a world beating car to equal the Honda Civics that used to be built there.

Executive Summary

The Denton election result and the current political meltdown of the Labour party signal the end of the post-2008 neo liberal consensus. The oxcam common room economic model has failed the North and the Midlands. The New Keynesian Gateway (NKG) offers a structural break a "Gateway" out of stagnation and into a high-wage, high-skill industrial future.

3. The Historical Imperative (The Hull Perspective)

As the late Mike Brown of Hull University taught, history is not a static line of decline, it is a series of choices. The de-industrialization of the Humber and the Wear was a political choice, not an economic inevitability. The NKG learns from the missed opportunities of the past to ensure that the next industrial revolution—the Green Industrial Revolution—is rooted in the same soil that built the original Empire of Industry.

4. The NKG Pillars

Pillar I: Re-industrialization via Green Sovereignty: Transitioning our aerospace and maritime heritage into the production of sustainable transport and energy infrastructure.

Pillar II: Fiscal Autonomy: Moving beyond the begging bowl culture of regional grants. Establishing regional investment banks that have the power to fund long-term projects in placeslike Brough, thye Humber and Sunderland the Wear.

Pillar III: The Labour-Capital Reset: Re-skilling the workforce not for service jobs, but for the high-complexity high skilled, multi skilled engineering required by modern aircraft and ship construction.

Reindustrialisation

1. High wages that create demand through the economy

2. Build ships in Sunderland again

3. Deseign and build aircraft again

4. Design and build great British car again

5. Case Study: The Aerospace Triangle

Kingston & Hatfield: Re-establishing the design and research nexus.

1. Research design, build and market an updated replacement for the Trident aircraft, capable of using rough airfiends and short take off and landing.

2. Research, design and build a UK replacement for the Harrier aircraft.

Brough: Returning to its roots as a premier aerospace manufacturing and assembly hub.

Integration: Linking these sites through a modern "Gateway" of shared technology and supply chains, ensuring the UK is once again a Tier-1 aerospace power.

6. Conclusion: The Gateway Choice

The Labour party faces a choice: continue the managed decline and face total electoral annihilation, or open the New Keynesian Gateway. We choose to build.

my position in the new keynesian gateway

 

Build Intellectual Monopoly by Owning the Plan

My ideas of the New Keynesian Gateway is the only route forward

When the meltdown finally happens the party will look for new ideas. The New Keynesian Gateway must be the forefront of the new ideas, led by me with solid support.

Move from abstract oxcam notions of growth to works canteen national reconstruction.

The works canteen mix.

• A bridge between academic ideas and practical resolution

• NKG is the necessary next step.

• Create gravity and support outside the party first the merge it within chosen key party people.

• 
  

The canteen manifesto

• A short sharp document that serves as a base.

• Build a network of political engineers and experts

The exit of the old guard

• A catalyst makes the ‘old guard old news

• Contrast managed decay of the past with the gateway to the future.

Find the new leader

1. High wages

2. Build ships

3. Build aircraft

4. Build cars

5. Build council houses

6. Counter inflation taxation

who created the modern consumer society?

 It was the trade unions who created the consumer society we have today.

Let's get history right - it was the unions

not the employers or the corporations the trade unions!

The work started by those early pioneers continues today.

Organizations like Unite the Union aren't just fighting for wages; they are defending the very foundations of the consumer economy. When workers have the power to demand a fair share, the whole of society prospers.

• See the Modern Fight: Explore Unite the Union's latest campaigns for economic justice

how the trade unions started the consumer age

 

In the late 19th century, particularly in Britain and the US, we see the birth of what historians often call the "Mass Market." Here is how that transition actually functioned:

This happened when skilled workers got together to form trade unions and used their muscle to demand and fight for better pay and better workng conditions. Industry and 'employers' benefitted as much as the workers because workers became consumers!

From Subsistence to Surplus


Before this era, most working-class income went entirely to "the basics": bread, rent, and fuel. As trade unions gained leverage and productivity increased, real wages rose. For the first time, a "labor aristocracy" of skilled workers had disposable income.

The 1870s-1890s Shift:


Prices for food and imported goods actually dropped (thanks to railways and steamships), meaning that even if a worker's pay stayed the same, their "purchasing power" went up.

The "Saturday Half-Holiday": Winning better conditions wasn't just about money; it was about time. You can't be a consumer if you're in a factory 80 hours a week. The shortened work week created the "leisure industry."

The Drivers of the Consumer Boom

Once these workers had a few extra shillings or dollars, the economy pivoted to meet them. This led to several massive structural changes:

1. The Department Store
Stores like Harrods in London or Macy’s in New York began catering to more than just the ultra-wealthy. They turned shopping into an event. For the skilled worker’s family, buying a manufactured clock or a set of tea china became a badge of respectability.

2. Branding and Packaging
Before this, you bought soap or flour in bulk from a nameless barrel. With the rise of the consumer-worker, companies started branding (think Kellogg’s or Lipton Tea). They realized that if a worker has a choice, they will buy the brand they trust.

3. Spectator Sports and Tourism
This is where the "better conditions" really show up.

Football/Soccer: In the UK, the growth of professional football leagues was funded almost entirely by the gate money of skilled workers who now had Saturday afternoons off.

Seaside Resorts: Places like Blackpool or Coney Island exploded in popularity as the "working-class holiday" became a staple of life.

The "Virtuous Cycle"
This created a feedback loop that would have certainly been a topic of interest in a lecture by someone like Mike Brown.

Increased Demand: Workers buy more manufactured goods.

Mass Production: Factories grow to meet demand, using "economies of scale" to make goods even cheaper.

Job Creation: More factory and retail jobs are created, further expanding the pool of consumers.

A Slight Correction on "The Boom"
While this was the start, it’s worth noting that this "boom" was still somewhat fragile. It mostly applied to the skilled workers (engineers, printers, carpenters). The "unskilled" labour force still lived in precarious poverty. It wasn't until the post-WWI era and the rise of Fordism (paying workers enough to buy the cars they built) that the consumer economy reached its final, high-octane form.

But we've gone round in a circle because the people who are ryunning the show and this includes the current hand picked by Mandeslon LINO (Labour in name only) government. Consumers are losing the ability to buy the extras and are being forced back to basics again.

The odd thing is that China, India, Russia and the BRIC nations seem to have the answer. While the G7 west languishes in an unnecessary decline.

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summary of the TUC budget proposals to Rachel Reeves

 Summary of the TUC's budget submission to Rachel Reeves

The UK faces an unprecedented set of challenges, including

• low growth
• falling living standards
• decimated public services

Workers have endured the worst pay crisis for two centuries. Real pay is going down while around 4 million people are in highly insecure work. (it's a hell of a lot more than 4 million)

The poor performance is attributed to reckless cuts to public investment, a bad Brexit deal, and a lack of genuine industrial or labour market policy.

Chronic under-investment has hollowed out Britain's industrial communities, and cuts to public services disproportionately affect those on the lowest incomes.

More investment is necessary.

To enable this, the TUC calls for significant revenue-raising measures:

The TUC advocates for addressing the imbalances in how labour and capital are taxed. Specific proposals to raise revenue include:

• A significant increase in the bank surcharge.
• Substantial capital gains tax reform.
• Increased taxation on gambling companies.
• A 2% tax on assets over £10 million, which the TUC estimates could raise up to £24 billion a year.

The National Wealth Fund should be expanded and given powers to borrow directly from capital markets. The government should also establish an independent commission to review and evolve the processes for managing public finances.

Raising Living Standards
The TUC stresses that economic policy must target rising living standards, as consumer spending is essential for growth.

Immediate action is needed, including measures to bring down domestic energy costs and an end to the two-child benefit cap.

The TUC calls for a joined-up labour market policy focusing on more and better jobs, including an ambitious quality training or decent first job guarantee for young people.

Implementation of the employment rights bill is essential, which the TUC projects will improve job security for millions of workers and deliver annual net economic gains of around £10 billion a year.

Investment in public services must be sustained. A key demand is an active dialogue with public service unions on a plan to restore public sector pay to resolve the current recruitment and retention crises.

Support is needed across foundation industries to ensure competitive industrial electricity prices, including the introduction of an interim support scheme for industry on the brink of closure.

the 1970s and the mistaken end of Keynes

 

the 1970s and the end of Keynes

From WW2 to the end of the 1970s Keynesian economic policies by Labour and Conservatives led to increased living standards like never before. It went with the feeling ‘we’ll never let (the poverty of the 1930s) happen again.

Certain problems that arose in the 1970s mistakenly gave rise to the end of Keynesian economics.

Inflation and unemployment rose

It was wrongly thought that Keynesianism was dead

It was wrongly thought that something else was needed

Global factors that would quickly pass were ignored and the wrong actions were taken regarding them.

The main factor was two oil price hikes

The oil price hikes caused other prices to rise

Unions sought pay rises to match the price rises.

Government panicked and made things worse. It wasn’t Keynes that failed it was government actions regarding the oil crises and price and wage rises that failed. (and is still failing)

1in 1971 the world dropped the link to the gold standard

The Bretton Woods international money agreement formed in 1945 came to an end.

Everything went OK with this but. The British government tried to over value the pound. It was this combined with the oil price shock, price rises and corresponding wage rises that caused inflation.

It was not the Keynesian economic policies – they were working OK. If the government had held it’s nerve the crisis would have passed like a wave underneath. The same things were happening in America.

Unknown persons acting as advisors were able to influence Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Regan. Or Thatcher and Regan were stumped as what to do and asked unknown advisors what to do. Or both.

I think it was Oliver Letwin in Britain that more or less said why don’t you try a ‘Free market’ approach. Whatever happened a major mistake took shape that has caused ongoing damage that is still going on today.

The economic fringe ideas, (that were considered crackpot ideas) of Milton Friedman suddenly became popular and the go to ideology in Britain and America. Then it spread across the west, more slowly and less completely across Europe but stronger in the UK.

These new ideas said…

•       State spending was (and still is) too high
•       Free markets are good Public sector is bad
•       Private sector spending is good
•       Government spending is bad.
•       High profits are good
•       Wage rises are bad
•       Entrepreneurs and business in general is good
•       Unions are bad

Keynes ran the UK economy behand the scenes in both WW1 and WW2. Keynes was a major influence in winning both of these wars. Keynes was as much a factor in winning the wars as Churchill for example.

State intervention and state action was required during the wars.

Keynes knew that inflation was a result of three interlinking factors.

Government consumers capital

There’s a kind of power battle between these three economic groups

Governments are the most powerful and can influence the whole economic activity. Under the influence of Friedman governments dropped their level of economic influence and forced the level of influence of consumers down in favour of capital (or profits). This is where it all went wrong. This is where and why things are still going wrong!

Dennis Healey was the first chancellor to get it wrong by not controlling resources.

Reeves is continuing the errors that started in the 1970s

Wages are still forced down and low pay is the main underlying problem with the UK and the US economies.

Thyere is no such thing as free markets so oligopolies formed along with capitalist oligarchs. Yes they are here as well as Russia.

Low paid rentier economy emerged and is still growing.

Pay is going down.

YES pay is actually going down. Prices are going up. Small number of people are profiting most are suffering real income reduction.

The Friedman so called free market ideology was originally called Thatcherism but is popularly called neoliberalism.

The move away from Keynes turned the economy from being demand or consumer led to supply or business led. where profits are the most important consideration over and above consumer spending. This benefits a small number of oligarch type millionaires and now billionaires but leaves the majority suffering low pay and no ability to spend. It leads to the inevitable decline seen in western economies, especially the UK and the USA.

The supply driven economy

·       Drives inflation up

·       Drives wages down

·       Governments are making the same mistakes

·       Making things worse.

Giving markets more and people less is plain stupid but it still goes on. Neoliberalism tries to cure the problems by cutting public spending and enforcing austerity. Exactly the opposite of what is needed. Most people fall for the neoliberal spin.

spinning a false, fake, phoney free market economy

The solution is a return to Keynes, socialism or fascism when the economy collapses and the UK and American economies are in meltdown.

Reclaim Keynes with:

• ·       Economy based on consumer demand
• ·       Consumers more, markets and profits less
• ·       State investment on a huge scale
• ·       Politics of care
• ·       Wide distribution of benefits
• ·       Role of government is to help consumers prosper not to boost profits.

Economic failure started in the 1970s and is

continuing today because governments

abandoned Keynes for fringe ideas

that are failing you and failing me

bring back Keynes

Source information Richard Murphy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcrGuICZUWc