a detailed breakdown of how Cummings and Aggregate IQ twisted the Brexit referendum

And why it should have and still should be declared void

Dominic Cummings, as the campaign director for Vote Leave during the 2016 Brexit referendum, leveraged the services of AggregateIQ (AIQ), a Canadian data analytics firm, to execute a sophisticated digital campaign on platforms like Facebook. Here’s a concise overview of how they used Facebook, based on available information:

1. Targeted Advertising: Vote Leave, under Cummings’ direction, spent a significant portion of its budget—approximately 98% or £2.7 million (out of a total £6.77 million)—on digital advertising, primarily through Facebook. AIQ was instrumental in creating and placing nearly a billion targeted digital ads, focusing on micro-targeting specific voter groups. They used data to identify and reach between 5 to 7 million swing voters who could be persuaded to vote for Brexit. These ads were tailored to resonate with specific demographics, leveraging psychological insights to maximize impact.
2. Data Harvesting via Competitions: AIQ facilitated a £50 million football prediction contest for Vote Leave, which served as a data-harvesting tool. Participants provided personal information (name, address, email, phone number, and voting intention), which was then processed by AIQ. This data, including Facebook IDs and emails, was used to create "custom audiences" on Facebook, allowing precise ad targeting. Additionally, AIQ used "lookalike audiences" to reach users with similar traits, enhancing the campaign’s reach.
3. Alleged Overspending and Coordination: Whistleblower Christopher Wylie and others claimed Vote Leave funneled £625,000 to a youth-focused campaign, BeLeave, which then spent this money on AIQ’s services, potentially to bypass the £7 million spending limit. This raised allegations of illegal coordination and overspending, as campaigns are prohibited from coordinating without declaring joint spending. The UK Electoral Commission later found Vote Leave breached spending limits through this arrangement, and Canadian watchdogs concluded AIQ lacked proper legal consents for using UK voters’ data on Facebook.
4. Controversial Data Practices and Cambridge Analytica Links: Wylie alleged that AIQ, described as a "franchise" of Cambridge Analytica’s parent company SCL Group, may have used improperly obtained Facebook data (potentially from Cambridge Analytica’s harvest of 87 million user profiles) to enhance its targeting capabilities. While AIQ and Vote Leave denied these claims, asserting no data was shared with Cambridge Analytica, Facebook suspended AIQ in 2018 to investigate possible data misuse. Cummings himself stated Vote Leave’s data did not go near Cambridge Analytica, but questions persist about how AIQ, a small firm, built a massive targeting operation so quickly without external data.
5. Strategic Messaging and Timing: Cummings emphasized digital over traditional advertising, believing it allowed for empirical testing and precise timing. AIQ’s role included optimizing ads to determine which messages worked best, with a heavy focus in the final days of the campaign. This strategy was credited with swaying undecided voters, with Cummings noting the referendum’s outcome hinged on just 1.8% of voters (approximately 600,000). Posts on X highlight the scale of this effort, with claims of 1.5 billion ad impressions in the last four days.
6. Legal and Ethical Scrutiny: The use of AIQ’s services sparked significant controversy. The UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) found AIQ violated GDPR by processing UK citizens’ data without proper consent or transparency. Allegations of "cheating" and "money laundering" by Wylie suggested that the overspending and data practices could have influenced the referendum’s outcome, though causation remains unproven. Cummings dismissed these claims as “fake news” and maintained that Vote Leave operated legally, with Electoral Commission approval for donations.

In summary, Cummings and AIQ used Facebook to deliver highly targeted, data-driven ads, leveraging harvested data and advanced analytics to influence swing voters. While effective—credited by Cummings for Vote Leave’s success—the campaign faced accusations of illegal overspending and unethical data practices, leading to investigations and ongoing debate about the referendum’s integrity. For further details, the UK Electoral Commission and ICO reports provide in-depth findings.